Models
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 9 brokers · 347 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-31.
Broker models paint SPS Commerce as a subscription supply-chain network compounding revenue in the mid-single digits, with recurring revenue over 90% of the total. The differentiated signal is in the composition: the models grow the top line on rising revenue-per-customer rather than customer additions, and they show operating margins bending steadily higher across the forecast.
The growth engine flipped: revenue keeps compounding while the customer base shrinks
The FY-2026 reversal is the story: modeled net new customers swing from +9,550 (FY-2025 median) to -7,650, as SPS is expected to shed smaller accounts, while annualized recurring revenue per customer climbs double digits and carries the top line.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top line | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue | $752.41m | $790.51m | $843.14m | $906.58m | +5.1% | 9 |
| Revenue - Recurring | $719.84m | $759.54m | $810.70m | $869.38m | +5.5% | 8 |
| Per customer | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Annualized average recurring revenue per customer | $13.69m | $15.36m | $17.00m | $18.32m | +12.2% | 7 |
| Recurring revenue customers - end(#) | 54,950 Number | 47,656 Number | 48,400 Number | 48,440 Number | -13.3% | 7 |
| Net new customers(#) | 9,600 Number | -6,944 Number | 744.7 Number | 772.8 Number | -172.3% | 8 |
Fulfillment carries the model; Analytics is barely credited
Fulfillment is the bulk of recurring revenue and the only line growing at a healthy clip; Analytics is modeled roughly flat and non-recurring revenue drifts lower. These splits rest on only four to five brokers.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recurring | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue - Recurring - Fulfillment | $639.11m | $677.71m | $725.99m | $781.21m | +6.0% | 5 |
| Revenue - Recurring - Analytics | $56.23m | $57.18m | $59.01m | $60.63m | +1.7% | 5 |
| Revenue - Recurring - Other | $24.48m | $25.18m | $25.62m | $27.54m | +2.8% | 5 |
| Non-recurring | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue - Nonrecurring | $32.58m | $30.86m | $31.20m | $31.20m | -5.3% | 8 |
Margins bend up across the P&L, stepping the cash line higher
The operating-adjusted margin ladder is the clearest consensus in the feed: gross margin, operating margin and free cash flow per share all step up each year, even as the customer count falls.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margins | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross profit/(loss) margin - Operating(%) | 70.3% | 71.7% | 72.0% | 73.2% | +1.4pt | 8 |
| Operating income/(loss) margin - Operating(%) | 27.7% | 30.6% | 32.1% | 33.8% | +2.8pt | 9 |
| Cash | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow | $175.40m | $201.77m | $219.69m | $249.29m | +15.0% | 8 |
| Free cash flow per share($) | $4.59 | $5.35 | $6.12 | $6.78 | +16.5% | 5 |
Brokers agree on revenue but split on how it is built — and on cash conversion
One broker does not model the customer cull as deep, holding the base well above the median and pulling the range wide; the same disagreement flips into per-customer ARR. Coverage here is only five to six brokers.
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recurring revenue customers - end(#) | FY-2026E | 46,950 Number | 46,820 Number–46,980 Number | 46,750 Number–50,778 Number | 5 |
| Recurring revenue customers - end(#) | FY-2027E | 47,522 Number | 47,445 Number–47,890 Number | 47,350 Number–51,794 Number | 5 |
| Annualized average recurring revenue per customer | FY-2027E | $17.20m | $17.10m–$17.36m | $15.88m–$17.49m | 5 |
| Free cash flow | FY-2027E | $217.71m | $211.94m–$224.74m | $206.60m–$239.03m | 6 |
Coverage thins fast in the out-years and on the segment and customer lines
Forward periods were refreshed on 2026-07-31, so the vintage is current, but FY-2028 is only two or three analysts and the segment splits, customer counts and ARPU lines rest on four to five brokers. Treat those as directional, not consensus.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.